The US-Iran MOU, signed in mid-June 2026 as part of a temporary ceasefire framework, included provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limited sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales, and a 60-day negotiation window toward a broader agreement. The pact unraveled in early July after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels prompted the US to rescind oil export permissions, a core economic concession. Subsequent diplomatic statements from both sides have referenced continued talks alongside mutual accusations of violations, with US policy focused on enforcement of existing sanctions and review of any extension. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether the administration will formally end participation in the current negotiation track before the market's July 31 resolution date or later deadlines, driven by escalation risks in the Strait, asset-release disputes, and scheduled diplomatic contacts through late summer.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDie USA kündigen den Rückzug aus den MoU-Verhandlungen bis zum...?
Die USA kündigen den Rückzug aus den MoU-Verhandlungen bis zum...?
$1,389,164 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
31. August
7%
$1,389,164 Vol.
31. August
$191,987 Vol.
7%
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.The US-Iran MOU, signed in mid-June 2026 as part of a temporary ceasefire framework, included provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limited sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales, and a 60-day negotiation window toward a broader agreement. The pact unraveled in early July after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels prompted the US to rescind oil export permissions, a core economic concession. Subsequent diplomatic statements from both sides have referenced continued talks alongside mutual accusations of violations, with US policy focused on enforcement of existing sanctions and review of any extension. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether the administration will formally end participation in the current negotiation track before the market's July 31 resolution date or later deadlines, driven by escalation risks in the Strait, asset-release disputes, and scheduled diplomatic contacts through late summer.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 8, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volumen
$1,389,164Enddatum
31. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.The US-Iran MOU, signed in mid-June 2026 as part of a temporary ceasefire framework, included provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limited sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales, and a 60-day negotiation window toward a broader agreement. The pact unraveled in early July after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels prompted the US to rescind oil export permissions, a core economic concession. Subsequent diplomatic statements from both sides have referenced continued talks alongside mutual accusations of violations, with US policy focused on enforcement of existing sanctions and review of any extension. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether the administration will formally end participation in the current negotiation track before the market's July 31 resolution date or later deadlines, driven by escalation risks in the Strait, asset-release disputes, and scheduled diplomatic contacts through late summer.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
Volumen
$1,389,164Enddatum
31. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Iran MOU, signed in mid-June 2026 as part of a temporary ceasefire framework, included provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limited sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales, and a 60-day negotiation window toward a broader agreement. The pact unraveled in early July after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels prompted the US to rescind oil export permissions, a core economic concession. Subsequent diplomatic statements from both sides have referenced continued talks alongside mutual accusations of violations, with US policy focused on enforcement of existing sanctions and review of any extension. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether the administration will formally end participation in the current negotiation track before the market's July 31 resolution date or later deadlines, driven by escalation risks in the Strait, asset-release disputes, and scheduled diplomatic contacts through late summer.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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