Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
$12,347 Vol.
$12,347 Vol.
1. Jan. 2027
$12,347 Vol.
$12,347 Vol.
1. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$12,347Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$12,347Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 86% probability against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026 due to entrenched partisan divisions in Congress and the absence of active bilateral negotiations. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, any agreement would face scrutiny over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns involving Israel and Gulf allies. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or executive branch initiatives have emerged in recent months to shift momentum toward a new accord. Historical patterns show low success rates for Iran-related legislation without broad bipartisan support or urgent administration priority. Upcoming legislative calendars focused on appropriations and domestic issues further reduce prospects for floor consideration before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen