US-Iran tensions remain defined by an eight-month conflict that began in late February 2026, featuring periodic US and Israeli strikes alongside Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A June memorandum of understanding produced a brief ceasefire that collapsed within roughly two weeks after disagreements over sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. As of early November 2026, the Trump administration has signaled it will pause major new combat operations while maintaining the naval blockade, citing effective economic pressure and recent Qatari mediation. Iranian officials continue to insist on lifting the blockade and certain sanctions before broader nuclear talks, terms Washington has rejected as unrealistic. Traders are therefore watching whether sustained low-level diplomacy can produce a verifiable two-week halt in direct exchanges or if renewed strikes or Hormuz disruptions shift the timeline.