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icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Kein Staatschef 4.6%

Reza Pahlavi 3.5%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,596,958 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Kein Staatschef 4.6%

Reza Pahlavi 3.5%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,596,958 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,013,282 Vol.

82%

Kein Staatschef

$1,148,038 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,285 Vol.

4%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,577 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,119,244 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,617 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,272 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,724 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,019,700 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$917,261 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$830,953 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,404 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$534,784 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,745 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,583 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,001 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,171 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,055 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$198,979 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,627 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,021 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,736 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,062 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,526 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,618 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,611 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,276 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,560 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,100 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, underpins his dominant market position. The rapid unanimous vote reflected institutional preference for regime continuity amid wartime pressures and IRGC influence, overriding traditional concerns over hereditary succession. Recent months have featured limited public appearances by the new leader, reports of possible injuries sustained in the conflict, and internal discussions over decision-making authority, introducing modest uncertainty about his tenure through year-end. Lower-probability outcomes such as Alireza Arafi or interim arrangements remain distant due to the completed succession process and absence of major subsequent challenges to the Assembly’s choice.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$38,596,958
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, underpins his dominant market position. The rapid unanimous vote reflected institutional preference for regime continuity amid wartime pressures and IRGC influence, overriding traditional concerns over hereditary succession. Recent months have featured limited public appearances by the new leader, reports of possible injuries sustained in the conflict, and internal discussions over decision-making authority, introducing modest uncertainty about his tenure through year-end. Lower-probability outcomes such as Alireza Arafi or interim arrangements remain distant due to the completed succession process and absence of major subsequent challenges to the Assembly’s choice.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$38,596,958
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 82%, gefolgt von „Kein Staatschef" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 82¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $38.6 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 82%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Kein Staatschef" mit 5%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.