Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli strike underpins the 93.5% market price. Revolutionary Guard commanders backed the choice amid wartime conditions, enabling rapid institutional consolidation and military appointments that reinforced his authority over armed forces and national security decisions. He continues to issue decrees and consult senior officials despite limited public appearances for security reasons. Traders price alternative outcomes below 3% because no credible challenges from figures such as Alireza Arafi or Masoud Pezeshkian have materialized, and the constitutional process plus IRGC alignment favor continuity through December 31, 2026. A major escalation, leadership health event, or internal fracture could still alter the outcome before year-end.