Israeli and Lebanese forces remain locked in a conditional framework agreement signed in June 2026 that ties any broader Israeli redeployment beyond the Litani River to verified Hezbollah disarmament and effective Lebanese Armed Forces control in designated pilot zones. Israel has completed only limited withdrawals from two small test areas—one north and one south of the river—while retaining an expanded security buffer reaching roughly 10 kilometers into southern Lebanon. As of mid-September, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that meaningful progress toward a security deal requires stronger Lebanese army performance on the ground and that forces will continue operating from forward positions to prevent Hezbollah rebuilding. U.S.-mediated talks scheduled for Rome have been postponed until October, leaving implementation stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rejection of disarmament terms. These dynamics keep trader focus on whether diplomatic sequencing or security conditions shift before any market resolution date.