Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,590,237 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
December 31
6%
$7,590,237 Vol.
December 31
$617,603 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volumen
$7,590,237Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,590,237Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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