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Wahlen·Mittlerer Osten

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon

icon for Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon
Wahlen·Mittlerer Osten

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon

Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 5.6%

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) 3.1%

Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA) 2.7%

Hisbollah (Hezb) 2.4%

Polymarket

$524,585 Vol.

Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 5.6%

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) 3.1%

Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA) 2.7%

Hisbollah (Hezb) 2.4%

Polymarket

$524,585 Vol.

Amal-Bewegung (Amal)

$53,618 Vol.

6%

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)

$157,880 Vol.

3%

Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA)

$3,740 Vol.

3%

Hisbollah (Hezb)

$43,788 Vol.

2%

Freie Patriotische Bewegung (FPM)

$73,463 Vol.

2%

Marada-Bewegung (MM)

$2,927 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$2,773 Vol.

2%

Taqaddom-Partei

$5,492 Vol.

2%

Volksnasseristische Organisation (PNO)

$3,541 Vol.

1%

Islamische Gruppe (IG)

$3,426 Vol.

1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$4,123 Vol.

1%

Union Party (UP)

$3,064 Vol.

1%

Watani-Bündnis (Watani)

$3,754 Vol.

1%

Kataeb-Partei (Kataeb)

$3,996 Vol.

1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$41,888 Vol.

<1%

Armenische Revolutionäre Föderation (ARF)

$5,112 Vol.

<1%

Mada-Partei (Mada)

$24,363 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Sozialdemokratische Partei (Lana)

$4,440 Vol.

<1%

Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)

$6,562 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,329 Vol.

<1%

Progressive Sozialistische Partei (PSP)

$47,456 Vol.

<1%

Unabhängigkeitsbewegung (IM)

$3,135 Vol.

<1%

Würdebewegung (DM)

$22,716 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's confessional electoral system and long-running economic crisis sustain a deeply fragmented field for the parliamentary election winner, with no party exceeding low single-digit implied probabilities amid broad uncertainty over turnout and alliances. The 2026 conflict with Israel prompted parliament to postpone the May vote until 2028, weakening Hezbollah-linked blocs while prompting reformist and opposition groups to seek wider coalitions. Amal Movement edges ahead due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role and Shiite base, yet Christian parties like Lebanese Forces and Kataeb pursue cross-sectarian partnerships to challenge traditional March 8 alignments. Diaspora voting limits, candidate registration deadlines, and lingering security concerns further diffuse support, leaving consolidation dependent on late alliance shifts or turnout surges in key districts.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$524,585
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's confessional electoral system and long-running economic crisis sustain a deeply fragmented field for the parliamentary election winner, with no party exceeding low single-digit implied probabilities amid broad uncertainty over turnout and alliances. The 2026 conflict with Israel prompted parliament to postpone the May vote until 2028, weakening Hezbollah-linked blocs while prompting reformist and opposition groups to seek wider coalitions. Amal Movement edges ahead due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role and Shiite base, yet Christian parties like Lebanese Forces and Kataeb pursue cross-sectarian partnerships to challenge traditional March 8 alignments. Diaspora voting limits, candidate registration deadlines, and lingering security concerns further diffuse support, leaving consolidation dependent on late alliance shifts or turnout surges in key districts.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$524,585
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 23 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Amal-Bewegung (Amal)" mit 6%, gefolgt von „Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)" mit 3%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 6¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 6% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $524.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 6, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 23 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ist „Amal-Bewegung (Amal)" mit nur 6%, dicht gefolgt von „Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)" mit 3%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.