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icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

Lula da Silva <5% 31%

Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%

Lula da Silva 10–15 % 7.8%

Polymarket

$231,585 Vol.

Lula da Silva <5% 31%

Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%

Lula da Silva 10–15 % 7.8%

Polymarket

$231,585 Vol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$4,601 Vol.

3%

icon for Lula da Silva 10–15 %

Lula da Silva 10–15 %

$2,627 Vol.

8%

icon for Lula da Silva 5–10 %

Lula da Silva 5–10 %

$6,808 Vol.

18%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$2,923 Vol.

35%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+

$1,984 Vol.

2%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %

$2,309 Vol.

6%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$4,026 Vol.

16%

icon for Sieg von Renan Santos

Sieg von Renan Santos

$200,567 Vol.

5%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg

Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg

$1,707 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior Sieg

Ratinho Júnior Sieg

$1,774 Vol.

<1%

icon for Andere

Andere

$2,258 Vol.

24%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro drives trader focus on narrow first-round margins ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent polls show Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with the remainder fragmented among minor candidates, which supports the leading prices on Lula da Silva winning by under 5 percent or 5-10 percent. Flávio's own under-5 percent outcome draws support from consistent conservative consolidation and Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement. Broader field dynamics, including limited traction for alternatives such as Tarcisio de Freitas or Ratinho Júnior, keep victory probabilities for non-front-runners low while highlighting the potential for vote splitting to produce a close result or an outright edge for either major contender.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$231,585
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro drives trader focus on narrow first-round margins ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent polls show Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with the remainder fragmented among minor candidates, which supports the leading prices on Lula da Silva winning by under 5 percent or 5-10 percent. Flávio's own under-5 percent outcome draws support from consistent conservative consolidation and Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement. Broader field dynamics, including limited traction for alternatives such as Tarcisio de Freitas or Ratinho Júnior, keep victory probabilities for non-front-runners low while highlighting the potential for vote splitting to produce a close result or an outright edge for either major contender.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$231,585
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula da Silva <5%" mit 35%, gefolgt von „Andere" mit 24%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 35¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 35% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $231.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 11, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist „Lula da Silva <5%" mit 35%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 35% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Andere" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.