Recent polling from August 2026 shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 38–44% and Bolsonaro at 28–40% amid a fragmented field including lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos. Traders price the 5–10% Lula margin highest because these surveys reflect ongoing economic outreach by the government alongside persistent divisions on the right following earlier candidate controversies and a narrowed but still positive gap for the incumbent. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for turnout shifts or late campaign developments to alter the spread before results finalize the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBrasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Lula da Silva 5–10 % 40%
Lula da Silva 10–15 % 26.9%
Lula da Silva <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 5.8%
$323,264 Vol.
$323,264 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10–15 %
27%
Lula da Silva 5–10 %
40%
Lula da Silva <5%
19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Sieg von Renan Santos
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Sieg
1%
Andere
1%
Lula da Silva 5–10 % 40%
Lula da Silva 10–15 % 26.9%
Lula da Silva <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 5.8%
$323,264 Vol.
$323,264 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$12,152 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10–15 %
$26,821 Vol.
27%
Lula da Silva 5–10 %
$18,151 Vol.
40%
Lula da Silva <5%
$19,689 Vol.
19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+
$6,355 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %
$6,071 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$10,490 Vol.
6%
Sieg von Renan Santos
$210,825 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg
$3,532 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Sieg
$4,155 Vol.
1%
Andere
$5,022 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from August 2026 shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 38–44% and Bolsonaro at 28–40% amid a fragmented field including lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos. Traders price the 5–10% Lula margin highest because these surveys reflect ongoing economic outreach by the government alongside persistent divisions on the right following earlier candidate controversies and a narrowed but still positive gap for the incumbent. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for turnout shifts or late campaign developments to alter the spread before results finalize the outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$323,264Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from August 2026 shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 38–44% and Bolsonaro at 28–40% amid a fragmented field including lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos. Traders price the 5–10% Lula margin highest because these surveys reflect ongoing economic outreach by the government alongside persistent divisions on the right following earlier candidate controversies and a narrowed but still positive gap for the incumbent. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for turnout shifts or late campaign developments to alter the spread before results finalize the outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$323,264Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from August 2026 shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 38–44% and Bolsonaro at 28–40% amid a fragmented field including lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos. Traders price the 5–10% Lula margin highest because these surveys reflect ongoing economic outreach by the government alongside persistent divisions on the right following earlier candidate controversies and a narrowed but still positive gap for the incumbent. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for turnout shifts or late campaign developments to alter the spread before results finalize the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva die brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 gewinnen?
67%
Ja
Wird ein Präsidentschaftskandidat in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Wahl einen eindeutigen Sieg erringen?
12%
Ja
Wird Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sich für die Stichwahl um das brasilianische Präsidentenamt qualifizieren?
97%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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