Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in trader-implied probabilities for the Ceará gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple July surveys, including Quaest and Ipsos-Ipec, placed Gomes at 43-48% against Freitas at 31-35%, with similar edges in runoff scenarios. This positioning reflects Gomes’s established name recognition from his prior term as governor, PSDB affiliation, and efforts to consolidate opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners and an early August debate have not altered these trends, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão register negligible support. Ongoing coalition alignments and fresh surveys through the campaign period represent the main variables that could influence market pricing before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 66%
Elmano de Freitas 36%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$127,940 Vol.
$127,940 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Ciro Gomes
66%
Elmano de Freitas
36%
Eduardo Girão
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Ciro Gomes 66%
Elmano de Freitas 36%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$127,940 Vol.
$127,940 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Ciro Gomes
$74,785 Vol.
66%
Elmano de Freitas
$22,808 Vol.
36%
Eduardo Girão
$8,761 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$6,387 Vol.
1%
Capitão Wagner
$8,178 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$7,021 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in trader-implied probabilities for the Ceará gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple July surveys, including Quaest and Ipsos-Ipec, placed Gomes at 43-48% against Freitas at 31-35%, with similar edges in runoff scenarios. This positioning reflects Gomes’s established name recognition from his prior term as governor, PSDB affiliation, and efforts to consolidate opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners and an early August debate have not altered these trends, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão register negligible support. Ongoing coalition alignments and fresh surveys through the campaign period represent the main variables that could influence market pricing before election day.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$127,940Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in trader-implied probabilities for the Ceará gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple July surveys, including Quaest and Ipsos-Ipec, placed Gomes at 43-48% against Freitas at 31-35%, with similar edges in runoff scenarios. This positioning reflects Gomes’s established name recognition from his prior term as governor, PSDB affiliation, and efforts to consolidate opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners and an early August debate have not altered these trends, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão register negligible support. Ongoing coalition alignments and fresh surveys through the campaign period represent the main variables that could influence market pricing before election day.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$127,940Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in trader-implied probabilities for the Ceará gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple July surveys, including Quaest and Ipsos-Ipec, placed Gomes at 43-48% against Freitas at 31-35%, with similar edges in runoff scenarios. This positioning reflects Gomes’s established name recognition from his prior term as governor, PSDB affiliation, and efforts to consolidate opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners and an early August debate have not altered these trends, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão register negligible support. Ongoing coalition alignments and fresh surveys through the campaign period represent the main variables that could influence market pricing before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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