Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo governor race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Surveys from July and early August, including those by Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others, show him at 41–52% support versus Haddad’s 26–35%, often positioning him for a first-round victory or favorable runoff. His established record in Brazil’s most populous state, combined with a fragmented field that includes low-polling figures like Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri, underpins trader consensus reflected in current odds. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes in key regions, or unforeseen economic or political events before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$123,143 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$47,232 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo governor race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Surveys from July and early August, including those by Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others, show him at 41–52% support versus Haddad’s 26–35%, often positioning him for a first-round victory or favorable runoff. His established record in Brazil’s most populous state, combined with a fragmented field that includes low-polling figures like Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri, underpins trader consensus reflected in current odds. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes in key regions, or unforeseen economic or political events before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$279,524Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo governor race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Surveys from July and early August, including those by Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others, show him at 41–52% support versus Haddad’s 26–35%, often positioning him for a first-round victory or favorable runoff. His established record in Brazil’s most populous state, combined with a fragmented field that includes low-polling figures like Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri, underpins trader consensus reflected in current odds. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes in key regions, or unforeseen economic or political events before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$279,524Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo governor race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Surveys from July and early August, including those by Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others, show him at 41–52% support versus Haddad’s 26–35%, often positioning him for a first-round victory or favorable runoff. His established record in Brazil’s most populous state, combined with a fragmented field that includes low-polling figures like Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri, underpins trader consensus reflected in current odds. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes in key regions, or unforeseen economic or political events before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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