Recent polling for the October 2026 first-round contest shows Luciano Zucco (PL) leading or tied with Juliana Brizola (PDT) in most surveys released in July, including stimulated scenarios where Zucco reaches 39–51% while Brizola trails at 19–24%. Gabriel Souza (MDB), the sitting vice governor, registers single-digit support across these measures. Traders appear to assign higher weight to Zucco’s consistent advantages in second-round hypotheticals and broader party infrastructure than to the technical tie recorded in the latest Quaest release. No major campaign events or shifts have altered the field in the past week, leaving the current pricing as an aggregation of these survey patterns and candidate positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLuciano Zucco 62%
Juliana Brizola 36%
Gabriel Souza 4.4%
Marcelo Maranata <1%
$89,946 Vol.
$89,946 Vol.
Luciano Zucco
62%
Juliana Brizola
36%
Gabriel Souza
4%
Marcelo Maranata
<1%
Luis Carlos Heinze
<1%
Luciano Zucco 62%
Juliana Brizola 36%
Gabriel Souza 4.4%
Marcelo Maranata <1%
$89,946 Vol.
$89,946 Vol.
Luciano Zucco
62%
Juliana Brizola
36%
Gabriel Souza
4%
Marcelo Maranata
<1%
Luis Carlos Heinze
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the October 2026 first-round contest shows Luciano Zucco (PL) leading or tied with Juliana Brizola (PDT) in most surveys released in July, including stimulated scenarios where Zucco reaches 39–51% while Brizola trails at 19–24%. Gabriel Souza (MDB), the sitting vice governor, registers single-digit support across these measures. Traders appear to assign higher weight to Zucco’s consistent advantages in second-round hypotheticals and broader party infrastructure than to the technical tie recorded in the latest Quaest release. No major campaign events or shifts have altered the field in the past week, leaving the current pricing as an aggregation of these survey patterns and candidate positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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