Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor of Pará, holds the strongest position in the 2026 race due to her recent polling lead and party infrastructure ahead of the October 4 first round. The latest AtlasIntel survey from early September shows her at 48.5% (52% of valid votes) against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, a margin that could allow a first-round victory under Brazilian electoral rules. Earlier surveys from Real Time and Quaest indicated tighter contests or technical ties, but Ghassan's advantage has widened with active campaigning, including regional events and coalition support. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency, approval ratings, and the low single-digit support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) when assessing probabilities. A decisive shift in undecided voters or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHana Ghassan 58%
Dr. Daniel Santos 42%
Éder Mauro 1.2%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,834 Vol.
$45,834 Vol.

Hana Ghassan
58%

Dr. Daniel Santos
42%

Éder Mauro
1%

Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%

Zequinha Marinho
<1%

Rogério Barra
<1%

Paulo Rocha
<1%
Hana Ghassan 58%
Dr. Daniel Santos 42%
Éder Mauro 1.2%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,834 Vol.
$45,834 Vol.

Hana Ghassan
58%

Dr. Daniel Santos
42%

Éder Mauro
1%

Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%

Zequinha Marinho
<1%

Rogério Barra
<1%

Paulo Rocha
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor of Pará, holds the strongest position in the 2026 race due to her recent polling lead and party infrastructure ahead of the October 4 first round. The latest AtlasIntel survey from early September shows her at 48.5% (52% of valid votes) against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, a margin that could allow a first-round victory under Brazilian electoral rules. Earlier surveys from Real Time and Quaest indicated tighter contests or technical ties, but Ghassan's advantage has widened with active campaigning, including regional events and coalition support. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency, approval ratings, and the low single-digit support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) when assessing probabilities. A decisive shift in undecided voters or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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