Iliana Iotova holds a near-certain position in the Bulgaria presidential election market after securing a decisive runoff victory on November 1, 2026, with exit polls and early counts projecting her between 50.7% and 58% against Andrey Gyurov’s 38-44%. As acting president backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party, Iotova benefited from first-round momentum and consolidated support despite record-low turnout around 23-29%. Gyurov, the pro-Western challenger backed by reformist groups, conceded after failing to close the gap. Trader consensus at these levels reflects confirmed results and the absence of credible challenges, though final Central Election Commission certification or unforeseen procedural disputes could still affect resolution timing.