Chiang Wan-an's position as incumbent KMT mayor underpins his strong trader consensus at 82.5 percent, reflecting sustained leads in multiple September polls showing 41-57 percent support against Puma Shen's 25-40 percent. Shen's DPP candidacy and active district-level campaigning have kept his implied probability near 18 percent, though recent online surveys indicate volatility with occasional reversals. The six-candidate field, including Kuo Hsi and several independents, registers negligible shares below 1 percent due to limited polling traction and party infrastructure. With the November 28 election two months away, market pricing aligns with historical incumbency advantages in Taipei races while incorporating risks from late shifts in voter turnout or coalition dynamics among KMT and TPP supporters.