The high 90.5% implied probability that Trump remains president through 2026 rests on entrenched constitutional requirements for removal, including a House majority for impeachment articles and a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. Current congressional composition shows insufficient bipartisan support for such steps, with legislative focus centered on appropriations and policy implementation rather than removal proceedings. No recent health disclosures, resignation signals, or criminal convictions have altered this baseline. Historical precedent further reinforces the low base rate for early presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances. Traders price in continuity through the midterms unless unforeseen events shift Senate dynamics or trigger formal investigations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$8,477,203 Vol.
$8,477,203 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$8,477,203 Vol.
$8,477,203 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high 90.5% implied probability that Trump remains president through 2026 rests on entrenched constitutional requirements for removal, including a House majority for impeachment articles and a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. Current congressional composition shows insufficient bipartisan support for such steps, with legislative focus centered on appropriations and policy implementation rather than removal proceedings. No recent health disclosures, resignation signals, or criminal convictions have altered this baseline. Historical precedent further reinforces the low base rate for early presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances. Traders price in continuity through the midterms unless unforeseen events shift Senate dynamics or trigger formal investigations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$8,477,203Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high 90.5% implied probability that Trump remains president through 2026 rests on entrenched constitutional requirements for removal, including a House majority for impeachment articles and a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. Current congressional composition shows insufficient bipartisan support for such steps, with legislative focus centered on appropriations and policy implementation rather than removal proceedings. No recent health disclosures, resignation signals, or criminal convictions have altered this baseline. Historical precedent further reinforces the low base rate for early presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances. Traders price in continuity through the midterms unless unforeseen events shift Senate dynamics or trigger formal investigations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$8,477,203Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high 90.5% implied probability that Trump remains president through 2026 rests on entrenched constitutional requirements for removal, including a House majority for impeachment articles and a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. Current congressional composition shows insufficient bipartisan support for such steps, with legislative focus centered on appropriations and policy implementation rather than removal proceedings. No recent health disclosures, resignation signals, or criminal convictions have altered this baseline. Historical precedent further reinforces the low base rate for early presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances. Traders price in continuity through the midterms unless unforeseen events shift Senate dynamics or trigger formal investigations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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