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Politik·Florida

FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne

icon for FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne
Politik·Florida

FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne

Mills <5% 39%

Elijah 5–10 % 39%

Elijah 10–15 % 37%

Mills 10–15 % 36%

Polymarket
NEU

Mills <5% 39%

Elijah 5–10 % 39%

Elijah 10–15 % 37%

Mills 10–15 % 36%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Mills 25%+

Mills 25%+

$49 Vol.

26%

icon for Mills 20–25 %

Mills 20–25 %

$0 Vol.

34%

icon for Mills 15–20 %

Mills 15–20 %

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Mills 10–15 %

Mills 10–15 %

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Mills 5–10 %

Mills 5–10 %

$0 Vol.

34%

icon for Mills <5%

Mills <5%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Elijah <5%

Elijah <5%

$0 Vol.

25%

icon for Elijah 5–10 %

Elijah 5–10 %

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Elijah 10–15 %

Elijah 10–15 %

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Elijah 15–20 %

Elijah 15–20 %

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Elijah 20–25 %

Elijah 20–25 %

$0 Vol.

35%

icon for Elijah 25%+

Elijah 25%+

$57 Vol.

35%

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Cory Mills faces a competitive Republican primary challenge from Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th district on August 18, with recent Victory Insights and St. Pete Polls showing Mills ahead by 6–16 points. Past controversies surrounding the incumbent have kept the race closer than typical for an established officeholder, boosting Elijah’s viability and widening possible victory margins. The high price on “Other” alongside clustered probabilities for single-digit to low-double-digit wins for either candidate reflects trader assessment of polling variability, turnout dynamics among Republican voters, and the absence of a dominant lead in the final days. Scheduled primary results will resolve the market.

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$106
Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Cory Mills faces a competitive Republican primary challenge from Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th district on August 18, with recent Victory Insights and St. Pete Polls showing Mills ahead by 6–16 points. Past controversies surrounding the incumbent have kept the race closer than typical for an established officeholder, boosting Elijah’s viability and widening possible victory margins. The high price on “Other” alongside clustered probabilities for single-digit to low-double-digit wins for either candidate reflects trader assessment of polling variability, turnout dynamics among Republican voters, and the absence of a dominant lead in the final days. Scheduled primary results will resolve the market.

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$106
Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Verwandte

icon for Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?

Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?

46%
icon for Wird Jared Moskowitz die demokratische Vorwahl in FL-25 mit mindestens 25 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Jared Moskowitz die demokratische Vorwahl in FL-25 mit mindestens 25 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

39%
Ja
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 18% or more?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 18% or more?

37%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mills <5%" mit 39%, gefolgt von „Elijah 5–10 %" mit 39%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 39¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 39% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 14, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne" ist „Mills <5%" mit 39%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 39% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Elijah 5–10 %" mit 39%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „FL-07 Republikanische Primärgewinnspanne" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.