**The 74% trader consensus against passage of California's Proposition 40 reflects heavy organized opposition, substantial campaign spending by affected billionaires, and competing ballot measures designed to nullify it.** The one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion (as of January 1, 2026) qualified for the November 3 ballot after union-backed signature collection, with revenue earmarked primarily for healthcare to offset federal cuts. However, Governor Gavin Newsom and coalitions including business groups, the California Teachers Association, and the California Medical Association have opposed the measure. Opponents, including figures such as Sergey Brin, have spent over $100 million on advertising against it and in support of two rival propositions (41 and 42) that include poison-pill provisions to invalidate the tax if they receive more votes. Recent September 2026 polling shows Proposition 40 with narrow or split leads around 45-52% support among likely voters, while the competing measures poll competitively, creating uncertainty over the final outcome in a high-spending contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
26% Chance
$3,793,456 Vol.
$3,793,456 Vol.
25. Juni 2026
Ja
26% Chance
$3,793,456 Vol.
$3,793,456 Vol.
25. Juni 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 74% trader consensus against passage of California's Proposition 40 reflects heavy organized opposition, substantial campaign spending by affected billionaires, and competing ballot measures designed to nullify it.**
The one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion (as of January 1, 2026) qualified for the November 3 ballot after union-backed signature collection, with revenue earmarked primarily for healthcare to offset federal cuts. However, Governor Gavin Newsom and coalitions including business groups, the California Teachers Association, and the California Medical Association have opposed the measure. Opponents, including figures such as Sergey Brin, have spent over $100 million on advertising against it and in support of two rival propositions (41 and 42) that include poison-pill provisions to invalidate the tax if they receive more votes. Recent September 2026 polling shows Proposition 40 with narrow or split leads around 45-52% support among likely voters, while the competing measures poll competitively, creating uncertainty over the final outcome in a high-spending contest.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volumen
$3,793,456Enddatum
26. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 74% trader consensus against passage of California's Proposition 40 reflects heavy organized opposition, substantial campaign spending by affected billionaires, and competing ballot measures designed to nullify it.**
The one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion (as of January 1, 2026) qualified for the November 3 ballot after union-backed signature collection, with revenue earmarked primarily for healthcare to offset federal cuts. However, Governor Gavin Newsom and coalitions including business groups, the California Teachers Association, and the California Medical Association have opposed the measure. Opponents, including figures such as Sergey Brin, have spent over $100 million on advertising against it and in support of two rival propositions (41 and 42) that include poison-pill provisions to invalidate the tax if they receive more votes. Recent September 2026 polling shows Proposition 40 with narrow or split leads around 45-52% support among likely voters, while the competing measures poll competitively, creating uncertainty over the final outcome in a high-spending contest.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,793,456Enddatum
26. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**The 74% trader consensus against passage of California's Proposition 40 reflects heavy organized opposition, substantial campaign spending by affected billionaires, and competing ballot measures designed to nullify it.** The one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion (as of January 1, 2026) qualified for the November 3 ballot after union-backed signature collection, with revenue earmarked primarily for healthcare to offset federal cuts. However, Governor Gavin Newsom and coalitions including business groups, the California Teachers Association, and the California Medical Association have opposed the measure. Opponents, including figures such as Sergey Brin, have spent over $100 million on advertising against it and in support of two rival propositions (41 and 42) that include poison-pill provisions to invalidate the tax if they receive more votes. Recent September 2026 polling shows Proposition 40 with narrow or split leads around 45-52% support among likely voters, while the competing measures poll competitively, creating uncertainty over the final outcome in a high-spending contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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