This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Recent Emerson College polling released this week shows former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra leading California's crowded top-two gubernatorial primary at around 24-25%, edging out billionaire Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton, reflecting trader consensus on Polymarket where Becerra trades at 52% implied probability to win the November general election. Becerra's surge follows a key NBC4-Telemundo debate and Rep. Eric Swalwell's April exit amid allegations, consolidating Democratic support amid voter focus on the economy as the top issue for 41% of likely primary voters. Steyer, bolstered by Sierra Club and progressive endorsements, holds second at 32% on the market despite heavy self-funding, while Hilton's 9% odds reflect potential for a top-two spot but long odds in the general given California's Democratic lean. The June 2 primary remains fluid with undecideds at 20-25%, positioning upcoming debates and endorsements as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Recent Emerson College polling released this week shows former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra leading California's crowded top-two gubernatorial primary at around 24-25%, edging out billionaire Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton, reflecting trader consensus on Polymarket where Becerra trades at 52% implied probability to win the November general election. Becerra's surge follows a key NBC4-Telemundo debate and Rep. Eric Swalwell's April exit amid allegations, consolidating Democratic support amid voter focus on the economy as the top issue for 41% of likely primary voters. Steyer, bolstered by Sierra Club and progressive endorsements, holds second at 32% on the market despite heavy self-funding, while Hilton's 9% odds reflect potential for a top-two spot but long odds in the general given California's Democratic lean. The June 2 primary remains fluid with undecideds at 20-25%, positioning upcoming debates and endorsements as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum in early May, reflected by a sharp increase in market price from 31% to 52%, indicating growing support ahead of the primary.
May 1 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly in early May, reflecting increased support or positive developments in his campaign, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events.
Apr 23 2026
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Apr 23 2026
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Apr 15 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Apr 14 2026
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Mar 10 2026
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Feb 20 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Jan 23 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as moderate Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness and crime, attracting support from Silicon Valley and business leaders, which influenced his market price.
Dec 1 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Dec 1 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Nov 17 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Oct 15 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Recent Emerson College polling released this week shows former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra leading California's crowded top-two gubernatorial primary at around 24-25%, edging out billionaire Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton, reflecting trader consensus on Polymarket where Becerra trades at 52% implied probability to win the November general election. Becerra's surge follows a key NBC4-Telemundo debate and Rep. Eric Swalwell's April exit amid allegations, consolidating Democratic support amid voter focus on the economy as the top issue for 41% of likely primary voters. Steyer, bolstered by Sierra Club and progressive endorsements, holds second at 32% on the market despite heavy self-funding, while Hilton's 9% odds reflect potential for a top-two spot but long odds in the general given California's Democratic lean. The June 2 primary remains fluid with undecideds at 20-25%, positioning upcoming debates and endorsements as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Recent Emerson College polling released this week shows former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra leading California's crowded top-two gubernatorial primary at around 24-25%, edging out billionaire Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton, reflecting trader consensus on Polymarket where Becerra trades at 52% implied probability to win the November general election. Becerra's surge follows a key NBC4-Telemundo debate and Rep. Eric Swalwell's April exit amid allegations, consolidating Democratic support amid voter focus on the economy as the top issue for 41% of likely primary voters. Steyer, bolstered by Sierra Club and progressive endorsements, holds second at 32% on the market despite heavy self-funding, while Hilton's 9% odds reflect potential for a top-two spot but long odds in the general given California's Democratic lean. The June 2 primary remains fluid with undecideds at 20-25%, positioning upcoming debates and endorsements as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum in early May, reflected by a sharp increase in market price from 31% to 52%, indicating growing support ahead of the primary.
May 1 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly in early May, reflecting increased support or positive developments in his campaign, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events.
Apr 23 2026
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Apr 23 2026
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Apr 15 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Apr 14 2026
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Mar 10 2026
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Feb 20 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Jan 23 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as moderate Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness and crime, attracting support from Silicon Valley and business leaders, which influenced his market price.
Dec 1 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Dec 1 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Nov 17 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Oct 15 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
„Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 23 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Xavier Becerra" mit 52%, gefolgt von „Tom Steyer" mit 32%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 52¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 52% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $21.4 million generiert, seit der Markt am Oct 9, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 23 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" ist „Xavier Becerra" mit 52%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 52% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Tom Steyer" mit 32%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $21.4 million Handelsvolumen bei “Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 52¢ für „Xavier Becerra" im Markt „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 52% sehen, dass „Xavier Becerra" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 52¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 48¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Der Markt „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" ist geplant, um am oder um den Nov 3, 2026 aufgelöst zu werden. Das bedeutet, dass der Handel offen bleibt und die Quoten sich weiter verschieben, bis dieses Datum erreicht ist. Der genaue Auflösungszeitpunkt hängt davon ab, wann das offizielle Ergebnis verfügbar ist, wie im Abschnitt „Regeln" beschrieben.
Der Markt „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien" hat eine aktive Community mit 60 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Gewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen