Rep. Byron Donalds commands an 88.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18, driven by his dominant polling and record fundraising amid an open-seat race following Gov. Ron DeSantis' term limit. A May 4 poll of likely GOP primary voters showed Donalds at 54%, far ahead of James Fishback's 9% and Jay Collins' lower share, building on an April Emerson survey lead of 46% and a RealClearPolling average of 38%. His early Trump endorsement, Q1 haul exceeding $22 million, and consistent momentum over the past month have solidified his path to victory, though late scandals or voter shifts could narrow the gap for challengers like Fishback appealing to younger Republicans.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.

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