Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds an 86.7% implied probability in the ranked-choice general election on November 3 because recent Alaska Survey Research polling shows him leading Bernadette Wilson 53-55% to 45-47% after lower-ranked Republican candidates are eliminated. The August top-four primary left him as the sole Democrat against three Republicans, and Tom Begich’s withdrawal plus endorsement consolidated support behind Kreiss-Tomkins while GOP vote splitting persists. Fundraising totals exceed the combined Republican field, and analysts at the Cook Political Report shifted the race to Lean Democrat amid infighting and state budget pressures tied to oil revenue. Traders view these structural and polling factors as durable barriers for Wilson and the remaining low-probability candidates.
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