Mary Peltola holds a substantial lead in the Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, driven by her 49.5% finish in the August 2026 top-four primary that advanced her and incumbent Dan Sullivan as the top two candidates. Recent polling averages show her ahead by roughly 1–2 points in head-to-head matchups, with her advantage expanding in simulated RCV rounds as second and third preferences flow disproportionately to the Democrat. Sullivan trails amid a national midterm environment and weaker independent support, while the two minor Republican candidates on the November 3 ballot remain negligible factors. This combination of primary results, polling trends, and voting mechanics underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices.