Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices moderate Candidate M at a slim 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round, narrowly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (43.5%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%), reflecting a fragmented race post-March interparty primaries where Cepeda emerged from President Petro's Pacto Histórico, Espriella from the right, and Paloma Valencia from center-right. Recent polls show Cepeda's late-April Invamer lead (44%) eroding amid tightening surveys like Atlas Intel's early-May results (Cepeda 38%, Espriella 30%), fueled by rebel attacks heightening security concerns favoring Espriella's messaging. The contest remains tight due to high undecideds and split opposition votes; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in battlegrounds could force a runoff or create separation.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices moderate Candidate M at a slim 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round, narrowly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (43.5%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%), reflecting a fragmented race post-March interparty primaries where Cepeda emerged from President Petro's Pacto Histórico, Espriella from the right, and Paloma Valencia from center-right. Recent polls show Cepeda's late-April Invamer lead (44%) eroding amid tightening surveys like Atlas Intel's early-May results (Cepeda 38%, Espriella 30%), fueled by rebel attacks heightening security concerns favoring Espriella's messaging. The contest remains tight due to high undecideds and split opposition votes; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in battlegrounds could force a runoff or create separation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 36%18%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, intensifying political controversy and affecting market confidence in left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro and others associated with Petro's coalition.
Aug 26 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's death
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Following the tragic killing of his son Miguel Uribe Turbay, a presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own presidential campaign, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new candidate and influenced market perceptions of the Democratic Center party's prospects.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy. This event impacted Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political tragedy.
Aug 20 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid following son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, declared his candidacy for Colombia's presidency, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement shifted market expectations, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects as new dynamics emerged in the race.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices moderate Candidate M at a slim 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round, narrowly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (43.5%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%), reflecting a fragmented race post-March interparty primaries where Cepeda emerged from President Petro's Pacto Histórico, Espriella from the right, and Paloma Valencia from center-right. Recent polls show Cepeda's late-April Invamer lead (44%) eroding amid tightening surveys like Atlas Intel's early-May results (Cepeda 38%, Espriella 30%), fueled by rebel attacks heightening security concerns favoring Espriella's messaging. The contest remains tight due to high undecideds and split opposition votes; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in battlegrounds could force a runoff or create separation.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices moderate Candidate M at a slim 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round, narrowly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (43.5%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%), reflecting a fragmented race post-March interparty primaries where Cepeda emerged from President Petro's Pacto Histórico, Espriella from the right, and Paloma Valencia from center-right. Recent polls show Cepeda's late-April Invamer lead (44%) eroding amid tightening surveys like Atlas Intel's early-May results (Cepeda 38%, Espriella 30%), fueled by rebel attacks heightening security concerns favoring Espriella's messaging. The contest remains tight due to high undecideds and split opposition votes; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in battlegrounds could force a runoff or create separation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 36%18%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, intensifying political controversy and affecting market confidence in left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro and others associated with Petro's coalition.
Aug 26 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's death
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Following the tragic killing of his son Miguel Uribe Turbay, a presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own presidential campaign, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new candidate and influenced market perceptions of the Democratic Center party's prospects.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy. This event impacted Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political tragedy.
Aug 20 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid following son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, declared his candidacy for Colombia's presidency, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement shifted market expectations, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects as new dynamics emerged in the race.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
„Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 19 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Abelardo de la Espriella" mit 44%, gefolgt von „Iván Cepeda Castro" mit 40%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $28.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Jul 29, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 19 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" ist „Abelardo de la Espriella" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Iván Cepeda Castro" mit 40%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $28.9 million Handelsvolumen bei “Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 44¢ für „Abelardo de la Espriella" im Markt „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 44% sehen, dass „Abelardo de la Espriella" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 44¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 56¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Der Markt „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" ist geplant, um am oder um den Jun 21, 2026 aufgelöst zu werden. Das bedeutet, dass der Handel offen bleibt und die Quoten sich weiter verschieben, bis dieses Datum erreicht ist. Der genaue Auflösungszeitpunkt hängt davon ab, wann das offizielle Ergebnis verfügbar ist, wie im Abschnitt „Regeln" beschrieben.
Der Markt „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien" hat eine aktive Community mit 423 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Präsidentschaftswahl in Kolumbien". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen