Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Paraná gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 35–43% in first-round scenarios across multiple surveys through July 2026, well ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) and others. Recent alliance shifts, including backing from Flávio Bolsonaro and Brazil Union figures, have strengthened his position against the machine of term-limited incumbent Ratinho Junior (PSD), whose preferred successor polls in single digits. High undecided rates and voter openness to change remain factors, yet Moro’s sustained advantage in stimulated ballots and second-round projections underpins trader consensus ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGewinner der Gouverneurswahl in Paraná
Sergio Moro 86%
Alexandre Curi 4.3%
Enio Verri 2.8%
Rafael Greca 2.6%
$39,908 Vol.
$39,908 Vol.
Sergio Moro
86%
Alexandre Curi
4%
Enio Verri
3%
Rafael Greca
3%
Requião Filho
2%
Luiz França
1%
Guto Silva
1%
Beto Richa
1%
Sergio Moro 86%
Alexandre Curi 4.3%
Enio Verri 2.8%
Rafael Greca 2.6%
$39,908 Vol.
$39,908 Vol.
Sergio Moro
86%
Alexandre Curi
4%
Enio Verri
3%
Rafael Greca
3%
Requião Filho
2%
Luiz França
1%
Guto Silva
1%
Beto Richa
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Paraná gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 35–43% in first-round scenarios across multiple surveys through July 2026, well ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) and others. Recent alliance shifts, including backing from Flávio Bolsonaro and Brazil Union figures, have strengthened his position against the machine of term-limited incumbent Ratinho Junior (PSD), whose preferred successor polls in single digits. High undecided rates and voter openness to change remain factors, yet Moro’s sustained advantage in stimulated ballots and second-round projections underpins trader consensus ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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