Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass faces significant headwinds in the November 3 runoff against City Councilmember Nithya Raman, as reflected in trader pricing that favors the challenger. A late-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed Raman leading 39% to 28% among likely voters, with 33% undecided, driven by Bass's 63% unfavorable rating amid rising homelessness counts and criticism of her administration's response to the Lineage fire. Raman has consolidated support among younger voters and benefits from momentum since finishing second to Bass in the June primary. Both campaigns are now focused on the large bloc of undecided voters, many of whom backed reality television personality Spencer Pratt in the primary, with mail ballots scheduled to begin arriving in early October.