**With seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 primaries—including Shri Thanedar, Adriano Espaillat, Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Al Green, Julie Johnson, and John Larson—trader consensus centers on a final total of 10-12 losses.** Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas and a series of progressive challenges in safe Democratic districts have driven the early tally, exceeding typical midterm primary defeat rates. Remaining contests in states with late-summer or fall primaries, plus any additional left-flank campaigns against establishment members, could add to the count and keep the range near the current 50% priced outcome for 10-12. Historical patterns of low overall incumbent primary losses suggest further upsets would require sustained challenger momentum through the rest of the cycle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert10-12 50.3%
7-9 9.1%
>15 1.6%
<3 <1%
$23,356 Vol.
$23,356 Vol.
<3
1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
9%
10-12
50%
13-15
22%
>15
2%
10-12 50.3%
7-9 9.1%
>15 1.6%
<3 <1%
$23,356 Vol.
$23,356 Vol.
<3
$1,106 Vol.
1%
4-6
$1,812 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$11,512 Vol.
9%
10-12
$4,514 Vol.
50%
13-15
$2,071 Vol.
22%
>15
$2,341 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**With seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 primaries—including Shri Thanedar, Adriano Espaillat, Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Al Green, Julie Johnson, and John Larson—trader consensus centers on a final total of 10-12 losses.** Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas and a series of progressive challenges in safe Democratic districts have driven the early tally, exceeding typical midterm primary defeat rates. Remaining contests in states with late-summer or fall primaries, plus any additional left-flank campaigns against establishment members, could add to the count and keep the range near the current 50% priced outcome for 10-12. Historical patterns of low overall incumbent primary losses suggest further upsets would require sustained challenger momentum through the rest of the cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volumen
$23,356Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**With seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 primaries—including Shri Thanedar, Adriano Espaillat, Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Al Green, Julie Johnson, and John Larson—trader consensus centers on a final total of 10-12 losses.** Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas and a series of progressive challenges in safe Democratic districts have driven the early tally, exceeding typical midterm primary defeat rates. Remaining contests in states with late-summer or fall primaries, plus any additional left-flank campaigns against establishment members, could add to the count and keep the range near the current 50% priced outcome for 10-12. Historical patterns of low overall incumbent primary losses suggest further upsets would require sustained challenger momentum through the rest of the cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$23,356Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**With seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 primaries—including Shri Thanedar, Adriano Espaillat, Diana DeGette, Dan Goldman, Al Green, Julie Johnson, and John Larson—trader consensus centers on a final total of 10-12 losses.** Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas and a series of progressive challenges in safe Democratic districts have driven the early tally, exceeding typical midterm primary defeat rates. Remaining contests in states with late-summer or fall primaries, plus any additional left-flank campaigns against establishment members, could add to the count and keep the range near the current 50% priced outcome for 10-12. Historical patterns of low overall incumbent primary losses suggest further upsets would require sustained challenger momentum through the rest of the cycle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?
93%
Ja
Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?
79%
Ja
Werden die amtierenden republikanischen Senatoren bei genau drei Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?
82%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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