Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, continue to underscore the absence of a durable halt in hostilities. Short-term pauses, such as the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRussland x Ukraine Waffenstillstandsabkommen bis...?
Russland x Ukraine Waffenstillstandsabkommen bis...?
$5,910,597 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
31. Oktober
11%
31. August
3%
31. Dezember
27%
$5,910,597 Vol.
31. Oktober
$846,502 Vol.
11%
31. August
$388,447 Vol.
3%
31. Dezember
$2,138,316 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, continue to underscore the absence of a durable halt in hostilities. Short-term pauses, such as the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$5,910,597Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, continue to underscore the absence of a durable halt in hostilities. Short-term pauses, such as the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,910,597Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, continue to underscore the absence of a durable halt in hostilities. Short-term pauses, such as the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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