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icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

7% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
7% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling for the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading with 25-35% support among likely voters, followed closely by challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman in the low-to-mid 20s, amid a crowded field of over a dozen candidates and roughly 40% undecided voters. Under the city's nonpartisan top-two system, an outright primary victory requires a majority, a threshold none of the contenders has approached in surveys released over the past month. Voter concerns over homelessness, public safety, and affordability have fragmented support without consolidating behind any single candidate, while late momentum for Pratt and Raman has further dispersed the vote. This distribution leaves little room for a first-round majority before the November runoff.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volumen
$1,232
Enddatum
2. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling for the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading with 25-35% support among likely voters, followed closely by challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman in the low-to-mid 20s, amid a crowded field of over a dozen candidates and roughly 40% undecided voters. Under the city's nonpartisan top-two system, an outright primary victory requires a majority, a threshold none of the contenders has approached in surveys released over the past month. Voter concerns over homelessness, public safety, and affordability have fragmented support without consolidating behind any single candidate, while late momentum for Pratt and Raman has further dispersed the vote. This distribution leaves little room for a first-round majority before the November runoff.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volumen
$1,232
Enddatum
2. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" liegt bei 7% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 7% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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