Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 midterms, but generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by roughly six points on average, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting adjustments in several states have modestly improved the GOP map, while elevated Republican retirements and a competitive set of battleground districts add volatility. Trader consensus reflected in the seat-range probabilities centers expectations on net losses for Republicans in the low double digits, keeping outcomes clustered between roughly 190 and 210 seats. Further separation could emerge from shifts in the national environment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or late-cycle developments in the roughly 20 toss-up races identified by nonpartisan analysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUnter 190 25%
190-194 16%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,663 Vol.
$285,663 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
25%
190-194
16%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205–209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
1%
225-229
1%
230+
3%
Unter 190 25%
190-194 16%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,663 Vol.
$285,663 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
$32,408 Vol.
25%
190-194
$13,637 Vol.
16%
195-199
$32,609 Vol.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Vol.
12%
205–209
$40,227 Vol.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Vol.
9%
215-219
$11,450 Vol.
7%
220-224
$59,213 Vol.
1%
225-229
$24,724 Vol.
1%
230+
$30,975 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 midterms, but generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by roughly six points on average, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting adjustments in several states have modestly improved the GOP map, while elevated Republican retirements and a competitive set of battleground districts add volatility. Trader consensus reflected in the seat-range probabilities centers expectations on net losses for Republicans in the low double digits, keeping outcomes clustered between roughly 190 and 210 seats. Further separation could emerge from shifts in the national environment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or late-cycle developments in the roughly 20 toss-up races identified by nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$285,663Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 midterms, but generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by roughly six points on average, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting adjustments in several states have modestly improved the GOP map, while elevated Republican retirements and a competitive set of battleground districts add volatility. Trader consensus reflected in the seat-range probabilities centers expectations on net losses for Republicans in the low double digits, keeping outcomes clustered between roughly 190 and 210 seats. Further separation could emerge from shifts in the national environment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or late-cycle developments in the roughly 20 toss-up races identified by nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$285,663Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 midterms, but generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by roughly six points on average, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting adjustments in several states have modestly improved the GOP map, while elevated Republican retirements and a competitive set of battleground districts add volatility. Trader consensus reflected in the seat-range probabilities centers expectations on net losses for Republicans in the low double digits, keeping outcomes clustered between roughly 190 and 210 seats. Further separation could emerge from shifts in the national environment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or late-cycle developments in the roughly 20 toss-up races identified by nonpartisan analysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird die Republikanische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 47 oder weniger Senatssitze halten?
26%
Ja
Werden die Republikaner nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 47–49 Senatssitze und 193–207 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus halten?
24%
Ja
Wird die Demokratische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 das Repräsentantenhaus kontrollieren?
88%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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