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Wahlen·4. Nov. Wahlen

CA-23 Wahlsieger

icon for CA-23 Wahlsieger
Wahlen·4. Nov. Wahlen

CA-23 Wahlsieger

Polymarket

$60,350 Vol.

Polymarket

$60,350 Vol.

Republikanische Partei

$28,188 Vol.

93%

Demokratische Partei

$32,161 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured advancement from California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote against a fragmented Democratic field, where leading challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge received about 21 percent. The district's established Republican lean, reinforced by Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there that cycle, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent Republican probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November general. Potential shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$60,350
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured advancement from California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote against a fragmented Democratic field, where leading challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge received about 21 percent. The district's established Republican lean, reinforced by Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there that cycle, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent Republican probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November general. Potential shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$60,350
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus CA-24 gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus CA-24 gewinnen?

95%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den CA-06 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den CA-06 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus von CA-22 gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus von CA-22 gewinnen?

87%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„CA-23 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Republikanische Partei" mit 93%, gefolgt von „Demokratische Partei" mit 6%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 93¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 93% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „CA-23 Wahlsieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $60.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „CA-23 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „CA-23 Wahlsieger" ist „Republikanische Partei" mit 93%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 93% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Demokratische Partei" mit 6%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „CA-23 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.