Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 individual race following her victory in the August 18, 2026, special election runoff, where she defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primaries. Wahab’s win, achieved despite substantial outside spending favoring Hernandez, positions her as the Democratic incumbent for the November general election rematch in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Hernandez’s 16% share reflects her narrower path despite local name recognition and endorsements. The 50% levels on other listed candidates align with their elimination in earlier rounds, leaving the contest between the two Democrats as the decisive factor shaping trader consensus on the full-term outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$19,825 Vol.
$19,825 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
16%
$19,825 Vol.
$19,825 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Aisha Wahab
$12,147 Vol.
84%
Melissa Hernandez
$7,677 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 individual race following her victory in the August 18, 2026, special election runoff, where she defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primaries. Wahab’s win, achieved despite substantial outside spending favoring Hernandez, positions her as the Democratic incumbent for the November general election rematch in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Hernandez’s 16% share reflects her narrower path despite local name recognition and endorsements. The 50% levels on other listed candidates align with their elimination in earlier rounds, leaving the contest between the two Democrats as the decisive factor shaping trader consensus on the full-term outcome.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Volumen
$19,825Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 individual race following her victory in the August 18, 2026, special election runoff, where she defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primaries. Wahab’s win, achieved despite substantial outside spending favoring Hernandez, positions her as the Democratic incumbent for the November general election rematch in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Hernandez’s 16% share reflects her narrower path despite local name recognition and endorsements. The 50% levels on other listed candidates align with their elimination in earlier rounds, leaving the contest between the two Democrats as the decisive factor shaping trader consensus on the full-term outcome.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$19,825Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 individual race following her victory in the August 18, 2026, special election runoff, where she defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primaries. Wahab’s win, achieved despite substantial outside spending favoring Hernandez, positions her as the Democratic incumbent for the November general election rematch in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Hernandez’s 16% share reflects her narrower path despite local name recognition and endorsements. The 50% levels on other listed candidates align with their elimination in earlier rounds, leaving the contest between the two Democrats as the decisive factor shaping trader consensus on the full-term outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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