Jared Moskowitz secured a Democratic victory in the redrawn Florida 25th district on November 3, 2026, with final unofficial tallies showing approximately 51.3% to Scott Singer’s 46.6% for a 4.6-point margin that aligns with the market’s dominant 3-6% outcome. The result reflects Moskowitz’s incumbency edge, superior fundraising of roughly $5.7 million versus Singer’s $3.3 million, and strong performance across Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties that produced consistent leads throughout counting. Trader consensus in prediction markets has converged on this range because the vote totals stabilized early and have shown minimal movement in subsequent updates. Late certification adjustments, successful legal challenges to specific precincts, or an unusually large swing in remaining provisional ballots could theoretically shift the margin outside 3-6%, though the current gap and high reporting percentage make such changes improbable.