Trader consensus on a near-certain "No" outcome for Trump resigning before 2027 stems from the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits outside extreme circumstances like Watergate, combined with Trump's record of completing his first term and strong resistance to institutional pressure during his current administration. Recent developments, including continued U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict and Democratic predictions of midterm setbacks prompting an exit by early 2027, have not generated the bipartisan congressional support or cabinet-level action needed for 25th Amendment invocation or impeachment proceedings. Staff turnover and partisan commentary have not translated into decisive leverage. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events, major legal or scandal developments eroding party loyalty, or catastrophic midterm results creating internal pressure for a transition before January 2027.