Aleksandar Vučić's nomination as the Serbian Progressive Party candidate for prime minister, following his September 27 resignation as president, underpins the 74.6% market price. Serbia's constitution bars a third presidential term, prompting the early exit to allow him to lead the "Aleksandar Vučić — United Serbia" list in the October 25 snap parliamentary election. Recent polls indicate the ruling party holds a substantial lead over opposition groups, including the student-backed Students Win movement that emerged from protests over the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse. Other listed figures, such as Ilija Srdanović at 16.5% and lower-probability names tied to opposition or minor roles, reflect limited expectations of an alternative parliamentary majority forming after the vote. Trader consensus prices in the party's favored position ahead of election day.