The September 2026 election produced a hung parliament, with the S-V-C-MP opposition bloc securing 176 seats against 173 for the incumbent Tidö parties (M-SD-KD-L). Negotiations have centered on Centre Party positioning, as its 25 seats determine viable majorities. Sweden Democrats dropped their cabinet demands on November 6, easing formation of an M-KD-L-C arrangement under Kristersson, whose exploratory mandate was extended past the original November 10 deadline. Parallel talks led by Andersson for an S-MP-C government with external V support continue but face arithmetic and policy hurdles. These developments explain trader consensus favoring the four-party center-right coalition at 51.4 percent implied probability, ahead of narrower left-leaning alternatives.