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icon for Welche Koalition wird die nächste schwedische Regierung bilden?
Politik·Schweden

Welche Koalition wird die nächste schwedische Regierung bilden?

icon for Welche Koalition wird die nächste schwedische Regierung bilden?
Politik·Schweden

Welche Koalition wird die nächste schwedische Regierung bilden?

S + MP + C 28%

S + MP 24%

S + MP + C + V 14%

M + KD + L + SD 12%

Polymarket
NEU

S + MP + C 28%

S + MP 24%

S + MP + C + V 14%

M + KD + L + SD 12%

Polymarket
NEU

S + MP + C

$105 Vol.

21%

S + MP

$229 Vol.

24%

S + MP + C + V

$428 Vol.

30%

M + KD + L + SD

$107 Vol.

12%

M + KD + L

$64 Vol.

11%

S + M

$43 Vol.

9%

S + MP + V

$270 Vol.

8%

S + C

$84 Vol.

8%

S

$64 Vol.

8%

S + MP + C + L

$43 Vol.

8%

M + SD

$43 Vol.

8%

Andere

$54 Vol.

7%

M + KD + L + C

$95 Vol.

7%

M + KD + SD

$64 Vol.

5%

S + C + V

$64 Vol.

4%

S + C + L

$64 Vol.

4%

M + KD

$64 Vol.

4%

M

$167 Vol.

3%

S + MP + L

$64 Vol.

3%

S + V

$137 Vol.

2%

S + MP + C + KD

$54 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Sweden's September 13 election produced a narrow centre-left lead of 176 seats to 173 for the outgoing Tidö parties, with final tallies pending overseas and late ballots. This razor-thin margin, driven by Sweden Democrats losses and modest gains for the Left, Greens, and Centre parties, has left coalition formation highly uncertain under negative parliamentarism. Magdalena Andersson leads Social Democrat efforts to assemble a workable majority or minority arrangement, yet the Centre Party's resistance to Left Party cabinet roles creates friction, while Ulf Kristersson explores cross-bloc options. Traders price multiple S-led combinations highest because these negotiations remain fluid ahead of the Riksdag's late-September convening and any prime-minister vote.

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.

If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volumen
$2,309
Enddatum
1. Aug. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Sweden's September 13 election produced a narrow centre-left lead of 176 seats to 173 for the outgoing Tidö parties, with final tallies pending overseas and late ballots. This razor-thin margin, driven by Sweden Democrats losses and modest gains for the Left, Greens, and Centre parties, has left coalition formation highly uncertain under negative parliamentarism. Magdalena Andersson leads Social Democrat efforts to assemble a workable majority or minority arrangement, yet the Centre Party's resistance to Left Party cabinet roles creates friction, while Ulf Kristersson explores cross-bloc options. Traders price multiple S-led combinations highest because these negotiations remain fluid ahead of the Riksdag's late-September convening and any prime-minister vote.

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.

If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volumen
$2,309
Enddatum
1. Aug. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

86%
icon for Schwedische Parlamentswahl: Mehr Stimmen für MP oder KD?

Schwedische Parlamentswahl: Mehr Stimmen für MP oder KD?

39%
MP
icon for Schwedische Parlamentswahl: Mehr Stimmen für V oder KD?

Schwedische Parlamentswahl: Mehr Stimmen für V oder KD?

100%
V

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welche Koalition wird die nächste schwedische Regierung bilden?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „S + MP + C + V" mit 30%, gefolgt von „S + MP" mit 24%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 30¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welche Koalition wird die nächste schwedische Regierung bilden?" ist „S + MP + C + V" mit 30%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „S + MP" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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