Recent polling for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election shows a tight contest between the National-led coalition and the Labour opposition, with party support often separated by only a few points. Christopher Luxon’s personal ratings have remained subdued amid coalition strains, sluggish economic conditions, and two internal leadership challenges, the most recent resolved by caucus vote in mid-August. Chris Hipkins has stayed competitive or edged ahead in several preferred-prime-minister surveys, reflecting Labour’s positioning as the main alternative. Minor parties such as NZ First, ACT, and the emerging Opportunity Party continue to influence coalition arithmetic, while Nicola Willis and other senior figures register limited standalone support. Traders therefore price Hipkins and Luxon as the clear frontrunners, with smaller probabilities attached to coalition partners whose influence hinges on post-election negotiations.