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World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$406,462 Vol.

4. Okt. 2026
Polymarket

$406,462 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$188,433 Vol.

95%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$37,148 Vol.

66%

Renan Santos

$64 Vol.

22%

Ronaldo Caiado

$90 Vol.

19%

Romeu Zema

$136 Vol.

11%

Fernando Haddad

$59,526 Vol.

6%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$28,196 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$12,829 Vol.

2%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$80,040 Vol.

2%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$406,462
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$406,462
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 95%, gefolgt von „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 66%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 95¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 95%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 66%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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