Incumbent Kuomintang mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a 69.5% market price in the Keelung mayoral contest, ahead of Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei at 31.5%, as traders assess the November 28, 2026, vote. Hsieh benefits from incumbency advantages in a historically KMT-leaning city, stronger organizational mobilization, and voter familiarity after surviving a 2024 recall effort. Recent Mirror Media and other surveys from late October and early November show a statistical tie or slight Tung edge among likely voters, with support near 36-37% for each amid 25-26% undecided, though Hsieh retains higher "win probability" ratings. The gap between polling volatility and market pricing reflects emphasis on base turnout patterns and structural factors heading into the final weeks.