US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran requires 9–12 months to produce a nuclear weapon if it decides to pursue one, a timeline unchanged despite US-Israeli strikes since June 2025 and largely intact stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing concerns over access to facilities like Isfahan and Natanz but find no evidence of diversion to weapons-grade material or active weaponization, with Iran enriching only to 60% despite threats of 90% escalation amid faltering peace talks. Trader consensus reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path exceeding the end-2026 deadline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden regime shifts could alter odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$601,019 Vol.
$601,019 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$601,019 Vol.
$601,019 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran requires 9–12 months to produce a nuclear weapon if it decides to pursue one, a timeline unchanged despite US-Israeli strikes since June 2025 and largely intact stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing concerns over access to facilities like Isfahan and Natanz but find no evidence of diversion to weapons-grade material or active weaponization, with Iran enriching only to 60% despite threats of 90% escalation amid faltering peace talks. Trader consensus reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path exceeding the end-2026 deadline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden regime shifts could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$601,019Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran requires 9–12 months to produce a nuclear weapon if it decides to pursue one, a timeline unchanged despite US-Israeli strikes since June 2025 and largely intact stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing concerns over access to facilities like Isfahan and Natanz but find no evidence of diversion to weapons-grade material or active weaponization, with Iran enriching only to 60% despite threats of 90% escalation amid faltering peace talks. Trader consensus reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path exceeding the end-2026 deadline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden regime shifts could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$601,019Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran requires 9–12 months to produce a nuclear weapon if it decides to pursue one, a timeline unchanged despite US-Israeli strikes since June 2025 and largely intact stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing concerns over access to facilities like Isfahan and Natanz but find no evidence of diversion to weapons-grade material or active weaponization, with Iran enriching only to 60% despite threats of 90% escalation amid faltering peace talks. Trader consensus reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path exceeding the end-2026 deadline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden regime shifts could alter odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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