The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2025 Twelve-Day War, subsequent strikes, and nationwide protests suppressed by early 2026 underpins the 98.3% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security institutions have maintained cohesion with no major defections, while recent elite infighting and economic strains have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling leadership in the narrow remaining window. Ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz and calibrated regional pressure tactics further signal continuity rather than fracture. Realistic shifts would require rapid military escalation resulting in leadership decapitation, sudden mass defections among security forces, or an unforeseen domestic uprising overwhelming repression mechanisms before the deadline—developments absent from current verifiable trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird das iranische Regime bis zum 30. September fallen?
Wird das iranische Regime bis zum 30. September fallen?
Ja
2% Chance
$1,618,541 Vol.
$1,618,541 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Ja
2% Chance
$1,618,541 Vol.
$1,618,541 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2025 Twelve-Day War, subsequent strikes, and nationwide protests suppressed by early 2026 underpins the 98.3% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security institutions have maintained cohesion with no major defections, while recent elite infighting and economic strains have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling leadership in the narrow remaining window. Ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz and calibrated regional pressure tactics further signal continuity rather than fracture. Realistic shifts would require rapid military escalation resulting in leadership decapitation, sudden mass defections among security forces, or an unforeseen domestic uprising overwhelming repression mechanisms before the deadline—developments absent from current verifiable trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$1,618,541Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2025 Twelve-Day War, subsequent strikes, and nationwide protests suppressed by early 2026 underpins the 98.3% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security institutions have maintained cohesion with no major defections, while recent elite infighting and economic strains have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling leadership in the narrow remaining window. Ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz and calibrated regional pressure tactics further signal continuity rather than fracture. Realistic shifts would require rapid military escalation resulting in leadership decapitation, sudden mass defections among security forces, or an unforeseen domestic uprising overwhelming repression mechanisms before the deadline—developments absent from current verifiable trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,618,541Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2025 Twelve-Day War, subsequent strikes, and nationwide protests suppressed by early 2026 underpins the 98.3% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security institutions have maintained cohesion with no major defections, while recent elite infighting and economic strains have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling leadership in the narrow remaining window. Ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz and calibrated regional pressure tactics further signal continuity rather than fracture. Realistic shifts would require rapid military escalation resulting in leadership decapitation, sudden mass defections among security forces, or an unforeseen domestic uprising overwhelming repression mechanisms before the deadline—developments absent from current verifiable trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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