Diplomatic expulsions between close allies like Canada and the United States remain rare and typically require sustained escalation or direct interference, factors absent from current bilateral relations despite a petition exceeding 170,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra. Canada's government has not advanced the measure beyond parliamentary discussion scheduled for fall, reflecting standard protocol where such calls rarely translate into formal action. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no expulsion by year-end because historical precedent shows governments prioritize stable trade, security ties, and gradual dispute resolution over abrupt diplomatic breaks. Late developments such as intensified tariff disputes, explicit annexation rhetoric, or verified interference could still shift outcomes before December 31.