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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 10. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 10. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 10. August?

Aug. 16

Aug. 16

25-49 57%

<25 33%

50-74 9%

75-99 3.7%

Polymarket

$10,759 Vol.

25-49 57%

<25 33%

50-74 9%

75-99 3.7%

Polymarket

$10,759 Vol.

<25

$5,317 Vol.

33%

25-49

$3,210 Vol.

57%

50-74

$1,232 Vol.

9%

75-99

$532 Vol.

4%

100+

$468 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran-U.S. conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms of roughly 80–130 vessels per day.** Recent tracking data shows daily volumes of just 10–14 vessels on or around August 10, reflecting attacks on shipping, U.S. naval blockade enforcement, Iranian demands for preapproved northern routes, and sharply higher war-risk insurance premiums that deter most operators. Dark transits (AIS-off movements) and limited essential cargo flows persist amid stalled diplomacy with Oman and renewed strikes reported in early August. These conditions position the 25–49 range as the consensus outcome, with a meaningful probability of falling below 25 if disruptions intensify mid-week, while higher bins remain remote given the sustained risk environment. Traders are pricing the aggregated impact of these verified security and routing constraints on near-term volume.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$10,759
Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran-U.S. conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms of roughly 80–130 vessels per day.** Recent tracking data shows daily volumes of just 10–14 vessels on or around August 10, reflecting attacks on shipping, U.S. naval blockade enforcement, Iranian demands for preapproved northern routes, and sharply higher war-risk insurance premiums that deter most operators. Dark transits (AIS-off movements) and limited essential cargo flows persist amid stalled diplomacy with Oman and renewed strikes reported in early August. These conditions position the 25–49 range as the consensus outcome, with a meaningful probability of falling below 25 if disruptions intensify mid-week, while higher bins remain remote given the sustained risk environment. Traders are pricing the aggregated impact of these verified security and routing constraints on near-term volume.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$10,759
Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Verwandte

icon for Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 31. August zur Normalität zurück?

Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 31. August zur Normalität zurück?

4%
Ja
icon for Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

84%
icon for Werden bis zum 31. August 2026 an irgendeinem Tag mindestens 30 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus durchqueren?

Werden bis zum 31. August 2026 an irgendeinem Tag mindestens 30 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus durchqueren?

23%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 10. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „25-49" mit 57%, gefolgt von „<25" mit 33%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 57¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 57% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 10. August?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $10.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 8, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 10. August?" ist „25-49" mit 57%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 57% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „<25" mit 33%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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