Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September stay below 3 percent, reflecting the absence of verified seizures, occupations, or sovereignty transfers despite U.S. airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg aimed at degrading threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Recent developments include reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones over that island, yet operations have focused on capability disruption rather than establishing alternative control. Market pricing aligns with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf outposts through sanctions and limited strikes, with resolution requiring confirmed primary authority by another state or force rather than temporary raids or naval presence. No scheduled events in the near term indicate an imminent shift for this specific island.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFarsi-Insel nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
Farsi-Insel nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
$198,173 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
1%
$198,173 Vol.
30. September
$20,903 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September stay below 3 percent, reflecting the absence of verified seizures, occupations, or sovereignty transfers despite U.S. airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg aimed at degrading threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Recent developments include reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones over that island, yet operations have focused on capability disruption rather than establishing alternative control. Market pricing aligns with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf outposts through sanctions and limited strikes, with resolution requiring confirmed primary authority by another state or force rather than temporary raids or naval presence. No scheduled events in the near term indicate an imminent shift for this specific island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$198,173Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September stay below 3 percent, reflecting the absence of verified seizures, occupations, or sovereignty transfers despite U.S. airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg aimed at degrading threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Recent developments include reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones over that island, yet operations have focused on capability disruption rather than establishing alternative control. Market pricing aligns with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf outposts through sanctions and limited strikes, with resolution requiring confirmed primary authority by another state or force rather than temporary raids or naval presence. No scheduled events in the near term indicate an imminent shift for this specific island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$198,173Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September stay below 3 percent, reflecting the absence of verified seizures, occupations, or sovereignty transfers despite U.S. airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg aimed at degrading threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Recent developments include reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones over that island, yet operations have focused on capability disruption rather than establishing alternative control. Market pricing aligns with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf outposts through sanctions and limited strikes, with resolution requiring confirmed primary authority by another state or force rather than temporary raids or naval presence. No scheduled events in the near term indicate an imminent shift for this specific island.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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