Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities, civilian infrastructure, and maritime checkpoints near the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian positions on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader hostilities, yet produced no shift in on-ground authority, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving Iranian forces in place. Tehran has since deployed additional missile systems on the disputed islands and rejected external claims, while the UAE continues diplomatic advocacy through the Arab League and international forums without altering the status quo. Trader consensus reflects these barriers to rapid change, including Iran's entrenched defensive posture and the absence of coordinated ground operations or negotiated transfers in the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDie Insel Abu Musa steht nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
Die Insel Abu Musa steht nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
$97,230 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
1%
$97,230 Vol.
30. September
$3,832 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities, civilian infrastructure, and maritime checkpoints near the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian positions on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader hostilities, yet produced no shift in on-ground authority, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving Iranian forces in place. Tehran has since deployed additional missile systems on the disputed islands and rejected external claims, while the UAE continues diplomatic advocacy through the Arab League and international forums without altering the status quo. Trader consensus reflects these barriers to rapid change, including Iran's entrenched defensive posture and the absence of coordinated ground operations or negotiated transfers in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volumen
$97,230Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities, civilian infrastructure, and maritime checkpoints near the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian positions on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader hostilities, yet produced no shift in on-ground authority, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving Iranian forces in place. Tehran has since deployed additional missile systems on the disputed islands and rejected external claims, while the UAE continues diplomatic advocacy through the Arab League and international forums without altering the status quo. Trader consensus reflects these barriers to rapid change, including Iran's entrenched defensive posture and the absence of coordinated ground operations or negotiated transfers in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$97,230Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities, civilian infrastructure, and maritime checkpoints near the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian positions on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader hostilities, yet produced no shift in on-ground authority, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving Iranian forces in place. Tehran has since deployed additional missile systems on the disputed islands and rejected external claims, while the UAE continues diplomatic advocacy through the Arab League and international forums without altering the status quo. Trader consensus reflects these barriers to rapid change, including Iran's entrenched defensive posture and the absence of coordinated ground operations or negotiated transfers in the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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