Ongoing territorial disagreements remain the central obstacle, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas it does not fully control while Ukraine rejects unilateral concessions without durable security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks slated for October, yet produced no breakthrough or ceasefire framework, echoing stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Russia has signaled openness to dialogue but continues battlefield pressure and winter infrastructure strikes, while Ukrainian officials emphasize the need for leader-level resolution and verifiable de-escalation steps. With roughly three months left in 2026, these entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress support trader expectations against a comprehensive signed agreement before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUnterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?
Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?
Ja
12% Chance
$2,760,191 Vol.
$2,760,191 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
12% Chance
$2,760,191 Vol.
$2,760,191 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing territorial disagreements remain the central obstacle, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas it does not fully control while Ukraine rejects unilateral concessions without durable security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks slated for October, yet produced no breakthrough or ceasefire framework, echoing stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Russia has signaled openness to dialogue but continues battlefield pressure and winter infrastructure strikes, while Ukrainian officials emphasize the need for leader-level resolution and verifiable de-escalation steps. With roughly three months left in 2026, these entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress support trader expectations against a comprehensive signed agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$2,760,191Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing territorial disagreements remain the central obstacle, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas it does not fully control while Ukraine rejects unilateral concessions without durable security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks slated for October, yet produced no breakthrough or ceasefire framework, echoing stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Russia has signaled openness to dialogue but continues battlefield pressure and winter infrastructure strikes, while Ukrainian officials emphasize the need for leader-level resolution and verifiable de-escalation steps. With roughly three months left in 2026, these entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress support trader expectations against a comprehensive signed agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,760,191Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing territorial disagreements remain the central obstacle, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas it does not fully control while Ukraine rejects unilateral concessions without durable security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks slated for October, yet produced no breakthrough or ceasefire framework, echoing stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Russia has signaled openness to dialogue but continues battlefield pressure and winter infrastructure strikes, while Ukrainian officials emphasize the need for leader-level resolution and verifiable de-escalation steps. With roughly three months left in 2026, these entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress support trader expectations against a comprehensive signed agreement before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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