Ongoing disputes over disarmament sequencing continue to shape trader assessments of whether Hamas will formally agree to decommission its weapons by December 31, 2026. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains that no withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line will occur until verified demilitarization, while Hamas officials condition phased handover on Israeli approval of the U.S.-backed Board of Peace roadmap and subsequent withdrawal steps. Preparations for weapons collection sites advanced in mid-October, yet the Board of Peace remains blocked from establishing facilities, and the IDF documented 31 ceasefire violations from October 1–15. Israeli elections scheduled for October 27 introduce a near-term variable that could alter negotiation dynamics. These factors sustain uncertainty around the timeline for any binding Hamas commitment amid persistent verification and implementation gaps.