**Traders assign a 76.5% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 due to stalled progress on major candidates amid ongoing regional constraints.** Kazakhstan formally acceded in November 2025, marking the first expansion since the original 2020 signatories, while Somaliland pledged involvement after Israel’s recognition in December 2025. However, no additional Arab or Muslim-majority states have advanced to signing since those moves. Saudi Arabia, viewed as the pivotal potential member, continues to condition normalization on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state, a position reaffirmed amid post-Gaza ceasefire dynamics and the 2026 Iran conflict. Other prospects such as Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Syria, and Lebanon face domestic political hurdles, constitutional barriers, or security frictions with Israel that have prevented breakthroughs. U.S. diplomatic pushes, including calls tying further accessions to Iran-related talks, have met limited uptake, with some nations explicitly rejecting linkage. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and no confirmed pipeline of new signatories, the short timeline and requirement for formal diplomatic normalization reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds.