US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 indicate that Chinese leaders currently lack plans for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and hold no fixed unification timeline, preferring coercive pressure short of war to achieve objectives. The People’s Liberation Army continues military exercises, naval expansion, and cross-strait signaling while emphasizing political loyalty and modernization, yet these steps have not translated into imminent invasion preparations. Taiwan has responded by increasing defense spending and extending conscription, reinforcing deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders view the absence of concrete invasion indicators, combined with the high operational risks of an amphibious campaign, as the primary factors supporting an 85.5 percent probability against action by June 2027.