Ongoing battlefield exchanges and stalled diplomatic efforts underpin the 98.9% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s alignment with Western institutions remain unresolved despite earlier 2026 talks in Geneva and Istanbul. The Kremlin stated on July 16 there are no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, while both sides continue strikes and reject maximalist demands from the other. US-mediated proposals for limited ceasefires have not advanced to comprehensive agreements. A signed deal within the remaining window would require rapid alignment on these issues or an unforeseen diplomatic shift, outcomes traders view as highly improbable given current positions and timelines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$229,127 Vol.
$229,127 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
Ja
$229,127 Vol.
$229,127 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing battlefield exchanges and stalled diplomatic efforts underpin the 98.9% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s alignment with Western institutions remain unresolved despite earlier 2026 talks in Geneva and Istanbul. The Kremlin stated on July 16 there are no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, while both sides continue strikes and reject maximalist demands from the other. US-mediated proposals for limited ceasefires have not advanced to comprehensive agreements. A signed deal within the remaining window would require rapid alignment on these issues or an unforeseen diplomatic shift, outcomes traders view as highly improbable given current positions and timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$229,127Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing battlefield exchanges and stalled diplomatic efforts underpin the 98.9% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s alignment with Western institutions remain unresolved despite earlier 2026 talks in Geneva and Istanbul. The Kremlin stated on July 16 there are no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, while both sides continue strikes and reject maximalist demands from the other. US-mediated proposals for limited ceasefires have not advanced to comprehensive agreements. A signed deal within the remaining window would require rapid alignment on these issues or an unforeseen diplomatic shift, outcomes traders view as highly improbable given current positions and timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$229,127Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing battlefield exchanges and stalled diplomatic efforts underpin the 98.9% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s alignment with Western institutions remain unresolved despite earlier 2026 talks in Geneva and Istanbul. The Kremlin stated on July 16 there are no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, while both sides continue strikes and reject maximalist demands from the other. US-mediated proposals for limited ceasefires have not advanced to comprehensive agreements. A signed deal within the remaining window would require rapid alignment on these issues or an unforeseen diplomatic shift, outcomes traders view as highly improbable given current positions and timelines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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