Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June 2026 memorandum of understanding broke down in early July, including attacks on three ships on July 6–7 that triggered subsequent U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. These actions reflect efforts by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to enforce approved transit routes and assert de facto control over the waterway amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. Trader sentiment on the likelihood of further successful Iranian targeting of shipping by late August centers on the persistence of these threats, U.S. naval responses, and any diplomatic signals regarding renewed ceasefires or blockades, with the most recent July incidents remaining the dominant reference point for assessing escalation risks in the coming weeks.