**Traders assign a 97% probability against full U.S. embassy evacuation from Beirut by June 30 because the mission has already reduced to essential personnel since February 2026, with core diplomatic functions continuing amid a Level 4 travel advisory.** Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including agreements reached in early June on pilot zones and southern Beirut restrictions, have lowered immediate escalation risks from cross-border strikes or regional spillover. Official embassy alerts through June 4 emphasize monitoring rather than withdrawal, and commercial flight options plus shelter-in-place guidance for citizens reflect calibrated risk management rather than imminent closure. High confidence reflects the absence of new triggers in the final weeks of the resolution window and the State Department’s pattern of targeted drawdowns without full departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown of the truce through major Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, Iranian missile activity prompting broader U.S. force protection measures, or rapid deterioration in Lebanese internal security that forces complete personnel relocation before the deadline.